How will the urban car driving in Europe look like in 2021? The Boston Consulting Group forecasts at least 14 million people will be registered in a car-sharing service, 1.4 million of them will be heavy users taking multiple trips per month. Among with such trend will also be the use of electric cars powered with renewable sources.
According to the BSG report, car sharing is at the moment taking hold in large urban areas in both the developed and the developing world: “Although the largest market is the Asia-Pacific region (including Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan), with 2.3 million users and 33,000 vehicles, Europe (including Turkey and Russia) boasts the largest service per capita, with 2.1 million users and 31,000 vehicles. North America (including Canada and the United States), brings up the rear, with 1.5 million users sharing 22,000 vehicles.”
In 2015, users of car sharing booked 2.5 billion minutes and car sharing industry generated 650 million euros in revenues, the authors Julien Bert, Brian Collie, Marco Gerrits, and Gang Xu explain.
Car sharing already in 490 German cities
The authors of the study also pointed out that car-sharing business has grown rapidly in areas that clear certain social, economic and demographic thresholds. In Germany, for example, some 140 different services are in operation, controlling a car-sharing fleet that has grown from about 1,000 vehicles in 2001 to more than 15,400 today—about 50% of the total European fleet—with most of the growth occurring since 2011. The customer base has grown from a mere handful of early adopters in 2001 to more than 1 million, again with a sharp increase since 2011. Station-based car sharing is now available in 490 German cities serving a population of 36 million potential users. Thirteen cities with a total population of 10 million potential customers are home to free-floating car services.
€4.95 vs. €18.90 per 7.5 kilometers
Looking more in depth, in Germany—and particularly in Berlin, one of the world capitals of car sharing and home to an installed fleet of 2,900 vehicles—the service is only one of several mobility options, and far from the most widely used. B2C car-sharing services, operated by either OEMs or new entrants, account for only 0.1% of mobility options, compared with 29.5% for private cars and 12.5% for bicycles. At €4.95, the cost of traveling 7.5 kilometers (the average distance of a car-sharing trip) via a car-sharing service is considerably less than the €18.90 cost of a taxi for the same distance, but more than the €3.45 cost of a private car and the €2.70 fare on public transportation.
Growth of green car sharing fleets
The driving experience of the future is not just 100% flexible but also 100% electric. For some years now, 250 CITROËN C-Zeros are available in the city zone of Berlin charged with green electricity from 100% renewable energy sources by CITROËN Multicity Carsharing Berlin. Launched in August 2012, Citroën’s Multicity project is one of the very few car – sharing schemes in Germany that is 100% based on electric vehicles. Not only are the cars electric, but all the electricity that they are powered with is from renewable sources. This is ensured by using TÜV SÜD – certified RWE ePOWER network that deliver uniquely electricity coming from a mix of wind and hydro power.
First 30 electric car sharing opened in Ljubljana
Two weeks ago, Ljubljana has joined the European capitals with strong green vision of the future mobility. At the end of June Avantcar introduced the first Avant2go car-sharing model.
The project is part of the Ljubljana city municipality’s efforts to clean up Ljubljana’s air. “It is an important step towards saving the planet, which puts Ljubljana on the pedestal of Europe”, Ljubljana’s Mayor Zoran Janković commented.
At the moment 30 vehicles are available for rent in the first year of the car-sharing scheme and new cars will be added if needed, said Matej Čer, CEO of Avantcar at the opening event. The car-sharing stations are located near the BTC (Ljubljana’s biggest shopping) and Tehnološki Park (the hub for technology and startups). The ambitious goal of the Ljubljana municipality is to have between 5.000 to up to 10 thousand cars less in the city by 2018. That will reduce one million grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer. And in Ljubljana will be fleet of more than 500 electric cars for sharing available, Čer estimates.
Global market size in 2021: 35 million restarted users
Now, let’s take a look at the big picture. In the BCG report it is pointed out that car sharing “will expand relatively quickly and widely. Estimates are that in Europe, some 81 million people will be living in large urban areas in 2021, 46 million of whom will have a valid driver’s license. About 14 million people will be registered with a car-sharing service and 1.4 million of them will be heavy users who take multiple trips per month.”
Globally up to 35 million people worldwide will register in at least one car sharing provider, you can find more interesting data in the following chart.
How all this will affect the car making industry? BCG estimates that the rapid grow of car sharing trend will only have a minimal effect on new-car sales, mostly because drivers will not forgo car ownership entirely. Also, some share of lost car sales will be partially offset by sales into car-sharing fleets in large urban areas.
What is car sharing? Car sharing is an umbrella term that covers multiple modes of sharing. It is distinct from ride sharing, which involves being driven rather than driving, and has existed on an informal basis for as long as there have been cars, ultimately evolving into organized taxi services and more recently into new models such as Uber and Lyft.